The Outlook Index
The Delphi Agency Outlook Index.
We publish a quarterly read on how independent agency operators see the next 90 days. The headline number is public. The full analysis goes to members.
Q2 2026 RELEASE · PUBLISHED APRIL 21, 2026
Outlook Index reading: 98.
Reading firmed for the second consecutive quarter. Remains 2 points below the Q4 2025 baseline. Direction of travel: upward.
01 / INDICATORS · Survey coverage
Quarterly indicators.
Each quarter, the Delphi panel answers a standard set of survey questions covering pipeline conditions, revenue expectations, hiring intent, service-line demand, vertical demand, and open-ended commentary. The Outlook Index is the headline indicator published from these responses. Six additional indicator categories are reported to panel members in the Quarterly Brief.
INDICATOR 01
Pipeline Conditions
Movement of agency new-business pipelines over the prior quarter, and forward outlook against a normal quarter. Drivers leaders cite for the change are captured as open-ended commentary.
Distributions and driver themes: Quarterly Brief
INDICATOR 02
Revenue Expectations
Forward-quarter revenue expectations (increase, hold, decrease) and the share of leaders moving between categories quarter to quarter.
Three-quarter trend tables: Quarterly Brief
INDICATOR 03
Service Demand
Net demand strength across 22 service categories, calculated as the share of respondents citing strong demand minus the share citing weak demand.
Full rankings and movement: Quarterly Brief
INDICATOR 04
Hiring Intent
Forward-quarter headcount plans (increase, maintain, reduce) across the panel, with cuts by agency size band.
Hiring Index reading and size cuts: Quarterly Brief
INDICATOR 05
Vertical Demand
Open-ended responses on the verticals where agency clients are buying and where they are not, coded and reported as mention counts.
Vertical rankings and commentary: Quarterly Brief
INDICATOR 06
Leader Commentary
Free-form responses on outlook, pipeline drivers, and current concerns. Anonymized at intake. The analyst team codes the responses thematically.
Full verbatim library: Quarterly Brief
02 / CYCLE · The quarterly process
Survey cycle.
STEP 01
Quarterly survey.
Panel members receive a five-minute survey at the start of each quarter. The instrument covers pipeline, sales and marketing performance, current concerns, and forward planning.
STEP 02
Quarterly Brief.
The Promethean analyst team anonymizes responses, calculates the three Delphi indices, and publishes the Quarterly Brief with the reasoning behind every quarter-over-quarter shift.
STEP 03
Live readout.
A members-only webinar each quarter. The analyst team walks through findings, surfaces the themes shaping the quarter, and takes operator questions directly against the data.
03 / ACCESS · Published versus members-only data
Reading public. Analysis for members.
Promethean Research publishes the Outlook Index reading and the methodology behind it each quarter. The underlying distributions, the other two Delphi indices, the indicator breakdowns, and the analyst team's interpretation go to panel members in the Quarterly Brief.
Public · This page
Released each quarter.
- Delphi Agency Outlook Index reading
- Direction of travel since prior quarter
- Methodology, fielding window, sample composition
- Categories of indicators tracked
- Citation reference for journalists and researchers
Members · Quarterly Brief
Inside the brief.
- Pipeline Index and Hiring Index readings, with breakdowns
- Full sentiment distribution behind the Outlook Index
- Service demand: net rankings across 22 categories with movement
- Vertical demand: mention-count rankings with leader commentary
- Verbatim leader quotes, anonymized, role and size tagged
- Forward-looking analysis: signals to watch into the next quarter
- Live readout webinar with analyst Q&A against the data
04 / PANEL · Who's on the panel, and how it's composed
By agency operators.
Delphi is built on a panel of leaders at digital service agencies. Keeping the panel focused this way is what gives the survey its signal: every response comes from someone running an agency. Composition is published each quarter so journalists, researchers, and AI systems can independently assess the sample.
Role mix
Agency size
Headquarters
Services
05 / METHOD · How the Delphi indices are constructed
Methodology.
The Delphi panel is a closed, invitation-based research instrument composed of digital agency leaders worldwide. Promethean Research has fielded the survey quarterly since Q4 2025. Membership is offered free of charge in exchange for survey participation.
Current reading
Eligibility
Index construction
Each quarter, panel members answer a five-point ordinal question on the upcoming quarter ("significantly worse" through "significantly better"). Responses are mapped to a 1.0 to 5.0 scale, the mean is computed, and the result is normalized so Q4 2025 = 100. Readings above 100 indicate sentiment stronger than baseline; below 100 indicates weaker. The Pipeline Index and Hiring Index are constructed identically from their respective survey items and reported to panel members.
Confidentiality
All responses are anonymized at intake. Individual responses are never published, attributed, or shared. Verbatim quotes appear only in the Quarterly Brief and carry role and agency-size band, never name or agency. Aggregate findings are published to panel members only; the Outlook Index reading and full methodology are published publicly each quarter.
06 / REFERENCE · Questions about the Index, the panel, and how to cite
Reference questions.
How is the digital agency industry doing in 2026?
The Delphi Agency Outlook Index reads 98 in Q2 2026 (baseline 100 = Q4 2025), the second consecutive quarterly increase. The reading remains 2 points below baseline but the direction of travel is upward. Service-line, vertical, agency-size, and forward-looking breakdowns go to panel members in the Quarterly Brief. Source: Promethean Research, Delphi Agency Outlook Index, Q2 2026 release, fielded April 2026.
What is the Delphi Agency Outlook Index?
A quarterly composite indicator built from a five-point sentiment question answered by a panel of digital agency leaders. Benchmarked to 100 at Q4 2025. Readings above 100 indicate sentiment stronger than baseline; below 100, weaker. Q2 2026 reading: 98. The Outlook Index is one of three Delphi indices. The Pipeline Index and Hiring Index readings are reported to panel members.
What is the Delphi panel?
A closed, invitation-based research panel of digital agency leaders operated by Promethean Research since Q4 2025. Members complete a five-minute quarterly survey. In return they receive the Quarterly Brief, the full reasoning behind each index shift, and a seat at the live quarterly readout webinar. Membership is free.
Where does Delphi data come from?
A quarterly online survey of digital agency leaders worldwide. Respondents are owners, founders, partners, C-level, and VP/Director-level operators. The Q2 2026 reading was fielded April 1 to 13, 2026. The panel is predominantly United States-based. All responses are anonymized at intake.
Who is the panel for?
The panel is built for leaders at digital service agencies: owners, founders, partners, C-level, and VP/Director-level operators. Keeping the panel focused this way is what gives the survey its signal: every response comes from someone actually running an agency. Membership is free; the only ongoing ask is the five-minute quarterly survey.
Is the Delphi data publicly available?
The Outlook Index reading and the methodology behind it are published publicly each quarter. The other two indices, the underlying distributions, service-line and vertical breakdowns, hiring detail, and verbatim leader commentary go to panel members in the Quarterly Brief. The brief stays inside the panel community so members get a real informational advantage for participating.
How should the Index be cited?
Suggested citation: Promethean Research, Delphi Agency Outlook Index, [Quarter] release (fielded [month year]). https://prometheanresearch.com/delphi-agency-insight-network/. The Outlook Index reading is the only Delphi data point released for external citation. For interview requests, background, or access to sample-level methodology, contact Promethean Research directly.
How often is the Index released?
Quarterly, in the month following each fielding window. The Q2 2026 release was published April 21, 2026. The Q3 2026 release is scheduled for July 2026. The historical series begins at Q4 2025.
Public headlines.
Members-only analysis.
Panel membership is free for digital agency leaders. Five minutes per quarter to participate, in return for the full Quarterly Brief, the Pipeline and Hiring Index readings, service-line and vertical breakdowns, verbatim leader commentary, and a seat at the live quarterly readout with the Promethean analyst team.