Recession Outlook – Second Quarter 2019

Our proprietary recession model continues to show a low probability of a recession occurring in 2019. Supporting U.S. economic growth has been the expansion of employment and growth of wages; however, we are concerned that several consumer trends has started to slow. In addition to the slowing consumer trends, the slowing global economy and the international tariffs also weigh on our outlook. Overall, we expect continued moderate economic growth through the remainder of the year.