Our proprietary recession model predicts a low probability of a recession occurring in 2019 and the first half of 2020 but, the U.S. economy has become increasingly fragile over 2019. The U.S. consumer has been the key supporter of economic growth, driven by employment and wage growth. However, the U.S. economy has wandered into a minefield. While each step forward leads to additional growth, one wrong step could plunge the U.S. economy into a recession.
Our proprietary recession model continues to show a low probability of a recession occurring in 2019. Supporting U.S. economic growth has been the expansion of employment and growth of wages; however, we are concerned that several consumer trends has started to slow. In addition to the slowing consumer trends, the slowing global economy and the international tariffs also weigh on our outlook. Overall, we expect continued moderate economic growth through the remainder of the year.
Expect continued moderate growth (no recession yet), but also expect payroll costs to outpace productivity gains.
The U.S. is unlikely to see an economic correction in the coming year. Read on to learn why.
Should we be preparing for another economic storm? In brief: Main recession indicators are moving towards the possibility of a downturn. Positive data points could be weaker than they appear. Continue to invest but keep a short leash on your more speculative projects....